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October 2013 www.sname.org/sname/mt (opinion )As I start this article, it is summer 2013 and I am in London. I have just met with and stud- ied market analyses by Dr. Martin Stopford of Clarkson Research, the leading shipping research group in the world. e prospects are really bad. Markets are very low and the future looks grim. Just today, Maersk downgraded their prospects on global container trade and Commerzbank in Germany announced they will have to take over a shipping com- pany that cannot service its debts. So, I am looking at the result of risk in shipping?a lack of leadership, you may well think. It is quite obvi- ous that we in shipping have created our own downfall. Oh yes, the poor markets are to be blamed, but the truth is that we have created the disastrous shipping markets mostly by ourselves by ordering too many ships at the wrong time. We in shipping seem to have expanded the world eet recklessly?again?by ordering too many ships, creating a surplus. is leads to catastrophically low freight rates, dwindling ship values, and big black holes in the balance sheets of many shipping companies?and probably some nasty surprises for their nancing banks. And again, we ordered our ships at the top of the market. Ships are laid up and their crews are red and sent home. A lot of knowledge and good shipping Leadership and Risk in Shipping Planning for ecient, sustainable, and economically viable world trade BY LARS CARLSSON The double-hull Stena V-Max tankers, such as Stena Vision shown here, feature two separate engine rooms, twin rudders, and twin propellers. This gives the tankers increased redundancy and greater maneuverability than other VLCCs. Photo by Conny Wickberg.